2060: 62 Million Old, Lonely, Broke Millennials

Grandma and I are in a former hotel: tasteful-but-tough brown carpet, recessed 3000K lighting, exposed powder-coated white trusses over the indoor heated pool.

Grandma, 92, mildly demented but real lucid right now, is weeping on her brand-new couch.

"I have three children and a brother and no one wants to take me in? I have to live here alone? Oh my God! This is terrible, my mother took care of her parents in her home until they died!"

We’ve developed a real frank relationship over the past few months.

"You nailed it. Wasn’t my call, but apparently we’d rather pay strangers $12,000 a month instead of keeping you ourselves."

Grandma’s a millionaire now that her SoCal home, in which she spent the last 25 years with her very-recently-departed husband, was sold to a property investor. In the past 50 years, it became the default to farm out eldercare, so her money buys her a nice apartment in an Independent Senior Living Facility. A new life of independence for a woman who hasn’t spent more than a dozen nights alone out of the past 92 years.

Grandma has three daughters and a brother. Her oldest handles all grandma matters by herself (classic). Grandma’s brother is rich, bought their parents a wonderful Florida condo for their dotage.

If your own pile of money, three kids, and a rich brother can’t spare you from comfy exile away from the only people who care about you...well.

Eldercare, meaningful and necessary, also blows. It’s got all the dull and worrisome parts of childcare but 1) you can’t pick up the elderly like you would a recalcitrant toddler 2) and there’s no, like, better days ahead? Nobody gets more capable and pleasant as they tick towards 100.

But only family can offer real "care" for the elderly that exceeds the basics of fed, watered, not too many pressure sores. But in my experience, family won’t do it because, if they have the money, they aren’t required to.

Looking to future tragedies: millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) will face the same indignities as they age, but without money or family. Boomers hold 9x as much wealth, Gen X’ers 5x. The median millennial turns 35 in 2023. They’re pretty much out of time.

Federal Reserve Data

Americans in general gave up on having children, and millennials are no exception: the right side of the below chart shows "expected births per woman" sliding down towards 2018 (when millennial women were between the ages of 22 and 37.)

CDC Birth Data

Over the past ten years: women 25-29 had fewer kids, 30-34 about the same, 35-39 a bit more. Not a lot.

CDC Natality Trends

The population of Americans age 65 - 79 is projected to increase 44% between 2020 and 2060. Final count: 62 million old millennials. 15% of the population.

Census Population Projections

62 million is a lot of broke old people with no children to care for/about them.

Expensive media will commission full-frame shoots of "chosen families taking care of each other" but that won’t be the default. Without a lot of money or a big family, the childless millennials can look forward to Sysco meals, a CNA wiping their ass, one hour of Medicare-billed "social contact" per day (if you’re lucky and Medicare still exists).

American millennials might be truly facing a tragedy novel in degree and kind. America has never had so many olds with so few to care for them. Bummer!